Beneath Haiti, Hurricane Stan forms to threaten USA next week

Currently known as "99L Invest" a tropical depression was consolidating in the Caribbean directly south of Haiti last night and is now moving moving west-northwestward at approximately 10 mph. This slow progress will allow the system to gain strength over the warm waters of the Caribbean. The upper-level low on the western end of Cuba - that could have prevented the tropical cyclone from forming - has dissipated and now conditions are more favorable for "Tropical Storm Stan" to become the eighteenth named storm of the record 2005 hurricane season in the next couple of days. [Note: there are still two months left to this hurricane season that ends November 30, 2005]

If that is the case, it's possible that the tropical storm could gain strength and become Hurricane Stan before moving into the Gulf. In the last couple of years extremely dangerous hurricanes - Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Emily - have taken that similar route near the Yucatan Channel, which would threaten New Orleans with a storm surge for the third time this year. The National Hurricane Center of Miami Florida is warning interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and the rest of the northwest Caribbean to closely monitor the progress of this system over the next few days

HaitiAction.net will have updates to this system as they affect this region. For the latest bulletins go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ first.

Excerpts from most recent bulletins:

AXNT20 KNHC 271706 TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

205 PM EDT TUN SEP 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF CUBA WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 42058 SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH WLY WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED...THOUGH THOSE WINDS ARE LIKELY ENHANCED BY DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ON THE N SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. THIS AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WNW IS LIKELY... PLACING THE SYSTEM IN THE W CARIBBEAN LATE WED/EARLY THU. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13.5N-17.5N BETWEEN 74W-78W. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

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ABNT20 KNHC 271502 TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

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THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N74W HAS DISSIPATED. WAVE IS BENEATH E TO SE UPPER FLOW AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 75.5W FROM 13N-16N AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 77W FROM 12N-17N.