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Storm Olga
on HaitiAction.net
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HaitiAction.net Storm Olga Page
Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible over Haiti with possible isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rains are expected to produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides over the next few days. Efforts to protect life and property need to be completed before nightfall.
View the latest buoy and ship observations near Atlantic Subtropical Storm Olga. |
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Forecast track of Tropical Storm Olga: Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) map
from NRL Advisory 3 - Dec 11 - click map above for latest version and larger map. |
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| Excerpts from the recent National Hurricane Center advisories: |
000
WTNT32 KNHC 112030
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
500 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007
...CENTER OF OLGA INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA FROM CABO ENGANO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE
ST. NICHOLAS HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR LATITUDE 18.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...EAST OF
SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF OLGA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM...MAINLY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...68.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT42 KNHC 112033
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
400 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2007
AN ASCAT PASS FROM LATE THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER MAY HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE...BUT A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE AREA SHORTLY...AND I WOULD
PREFER TO WAIT FOR THEIR REPORTS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE ESTIMATED
INTENSITY. GRAND TURK ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
31 KT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE ASCAT DATA ALSO
SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS MAY BE DECREASING. IF
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE AIRCRAFT...OLGA COULD BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.
THE CENTER OF OLGA MADE LANDFALL IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF PUNTA CANA AROUND 18Z. THE MOTION OF THE CENTER HAS
BEEN ERRATIC...BUT OVERALL IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11. THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING...WHICH CALLS FOR OLGA
TO BE STEERED BASICALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER 48 HOURS...OLGA
WILL BE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...BUT THERE IS LIKELY
TO BE LITTLE LEFT OF THE CYCLONE BY THEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WESTERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL
WEAKEN...ALLOWING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE
INTERACTION OF THE CENTER WITH HISPANIOLA...SHOULD RESULT IN A
DECAY OF THE SYSTEM. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE DECAYING CYCLONE...HOWEVER...AND WINDS
THERE WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH IS
ALREADY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO.
THESE RAINS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...WHERE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO LIKELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2100Z 18.5N 68.8W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.5N 71.4W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 12/1800Z 18.6N 74.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 13/0600Z 18.9N 77.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 13/1800Z 19.2N 80.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
