A real threat, Storm GASTON should arrive over Haiti by Thursday September 6, 2010				News HaitiAction.net

Al Jazeera video shows demonstations by camp survivors who are protesting that the massive response to the January Earthquake is bypassing the victims.

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The shape of GASTON is a bit disorganized but forecasters are expecting that it will redevelop into a tropical depression, or stronger even though it will likely weaken a bit as it moves over the Leeward Islands
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A real threat, Storm GASTON should arrive over Haiti by Thursday

NHC UPDATE TUE 8:05 PM SEP 7

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THUS TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT. CONVECTION FROM THE
REMNANTS OF GASTON HAS REACHED PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 65W-69W MOVING W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 73W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE E CARIBBEAN HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW
E OF 72W, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W MOVING W. THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W HAS NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
EXPECT...CONVECTION FROM THE REMNANTS OF GASTON TO TRAVERSE HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Haiti Action.net - Port au Prince, Haiti —Even though Tropical Cylone GASTON is officially a "remnant low" it's quick development into a tropical cyclone or hurricane, at any moment, over the warm seas — now at 85.5º F — remains a strong likelihood. In the last few years we have seen several surprising weather events where weather systems were nominally rated as "tropical waves" without a cyclonic formation quickly spin up into a major storm within a few hours over the 80 miles of the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. It appears that GASTON will track into the Caribbean Sea and meander just along the southern edge of Puerto Rico and the DR before Thursday afternoon.

News crews in Port au Prince, especially Al Jazeera, have been anxious about the impact of potential hurricanes on the survivor camps. They still have a difficult time getting an accurate local forecast and assessment of the potential impact. An Al Jazeera video shows the frustration of the survivors and meteorologists over the lack of civil defense structures.

Since the Coup d'État of February 29, 2004, the nation's weather bureau is largely a neglected affair. Most of the qualified staff were ousted — or worse — shortly after the coup by the US-installed Coup Government who insisted that anyone who had a working relationship with the Aristide government had to be fired and isolated. Many former employees were forced into hiding or killed.

In the video, a meteorologist claims that the main equipment used for weather forecast hasn't even been working since the Coup Government and they depend on extrapolating most of their analysis second-hand from internet sources that are creating reports for other countries, mainly the USA military. Since the Coup no other country has seen the devastation caused by tropical cyclones than Haiti.

Even in 2008, there was a massive outpouring of relief money as a response to the devastation caused by three major storms, most of that money has been diverted to foreign NGO's and USAID, virtually none went to rebuilding the civil defense infrastructure that has the primary responsibility to protect the People of Haiti. In September of 2004, the floods after Tropical Storm Jeanne killed over 3,000 in Gonaive alone. USAID took over two years to come up with a public relations plan to assist in "hurricane awareness." Even that anemic diversion of the public interest was never implemented. Just a small portion of the money given by well-meaning donors in 2008 could have funded, revamped and expanded the vital hurricane response capacity of the country — well beyond anything that Haiti has ever seen.

Now that all of the "goodwill" public-awareness has been focused on The Earthquake it's even more unlikely that the current, or next, Government of Haiti will have any interest in hurricane response until after there is — yet another — atrocity caused by "structural adjustment." Since the Earthquake, Haiti has seen some devastation caused by strong rains but, has had only close calls from tropical cyclones.

Storm GASTON could very well be the first real test. So far, dry air has been able to weaken the storm and keep it from developing perplexing the National Hurricane Center in Miami (NHC) who expects that the storm will track directly west for the next 72 hours. An "… upper ridge … providing diffluence aloft …" and the "… upper low centered over the Dominican Republic …" combined with a hot moisture-heavy environment could provide the conditions to cause GASTON to intensify into a major storm at any moment.

In an over simplification, "diffluence" is similar to the exit end of a venturi that causes a deformation aloft and enhances the development of extreme weather. The short of it is that weather watchers in Haiti should be closely watching the progress of GASTON until well after it is no longer a threat.

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BOOKMARK the Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page for latest updates during this hurricane season.

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A real threat, Storm GASTON should arrive over Haiti by Thursday

BOOKMARK the Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page for latest updates during this hurricane season.

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Clinton's 'silence' challenged in Haiti Jul 7

U.N. denials in Haiti Jun 30

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