Haiti is forecast to be hit by Hurricane Irene this Tuesday
August 21, 2011
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Haiti is forecast to be hit by Hurricane Irene this Tuesday

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HaitiAction.net - Port au Prince, Haiti

2000 AST Update

As noted early this morning we thought that the official forecast to be a bit to far to the South (left) of the actual track of Tropical Storm IRENE. That analysis was based upon the plotted track of 306º observed at that time. If IRENE had stayed on that heading it would have taken the storm directly over the island of Anguilla by this time instead of the 200 miles west of Dominica (16.5N 64.5W) Where the NHC forecast had the storm by this time. We had also stated that if IRENE kept the heading of 300º after that point, it was very likely that the main part of the storm would miss Haiti to the north entirely.

In fact over the last 18 hours IRENE has almost kept an average heading of 300º placing it almost 75 miles west of Anguilla. The NHC forecast — and almost all forecast models — expect the weakening mid-level subtropical ridge to the north to suddenly change the heading of IRENE to bring it over Haiti and The Dominican Republic. Why the NHC has been claiming that the heading has been 285º is unknown to us.

At this time the next four hours will reveal a lot to interests in Haiti — not to mention the interests that were NOT part of the official forecast track. It's our feeling that if the center of IRENE passes to the north of Puerto Rico it will have significantly less impact on Haiti. To the degree that it misses Puerto Rico should determine if Haiti will be spared. On the other hand, if IRENE suddenly changes to a more westerly heading to the south of Puerto Rico within the next four hours it's very likely that, at the least, the Northern Departments could see heavy rain of almost 12 inches with the associated dangerous flash floods and landslides.

Our inclination is to place the path of IRENE slightly to the north of the Turks and Caicos Islands.


Original 0100 AST article

It is very likely that Haiti will not be spared from the first major hurricane to hit the country since the deadly 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season. It is possible that IRENE — currently at Tropical Storm intensity could reach Hurricane Category Two intensity when it is forecast to hit the region near Barahona Tuesday afternoon. Like Tropical Storm Emily, the high mountains of the Dominican Republic and Haiti should weaken the hurricane somewhat, but this time most computer models show IRENE maintaining Tropical Storm intensity and not dissipating significantly over the island.

Currently the storm's forward motion is rather quick but is expected to slow once it passes the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea. Even though the forecast is for IRENE to keep moving westward at 270º, the forecast track should show IRENE gradually curving more to the north and missing Haiti entirely if the center passes over Anguilla with a 300º heading later today. None of the computer models show this track. The National Hurricane Center in Miami (NHC) states that "hurricane conditions could occur in the Dominican Republic late on Monday."

IRENE is the ninth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season being the third most active year on record behind the 2008 and 1936 seasons. The Republic of Haiti has issued an Orange Alert for this storm.

HaitiAction.net will be tracking the progress of this storm. For the latest official updates, go to the Centre National de Météorologie (CNM) web page Many forecast and tracking resources can be found on the Tropical Cyclone page at HaitiAction.net


BOOKMARK Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page
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