Satellit image ofTropical Storm Ophelia showing areas of vapor density

Haiti watching Tropical Storm OPHELIA closely, could threaten by Wednesday

NOAA buoy wind/pressure plot showing a building subtropical ridge

This Plot from Buoy 41043 shows increasing atmospheric pressure before the arrival of OPHELIA the higher pressure of the region will steer the cyclone on a more westerly track and could place Haiti and the Dominican Republic at risk. Click image for latest plot

HaitiAction.net - Port au Prince, Haiti — So far it has been a fairly quiet Hurricane season for the beleaguered country of Haiti. That could change soon in the next few days as Tropical Storm OPHELIA steps outside the official forecast track provided by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida which was expecting the storm to start turning to the right away from the East Coast of the USA. The Mid-Level Subtropical Ridge has been building out from its western periphery which is likely to cause OPHELIA to turn to the left on a more westerly course towards the Northern Region of Haiti.

Late season hurricanes have been occasionally erratic and unpredictable. The good news is that it's just as likely that OPHELIA will have some trouble over the next three days of developing quickly into a more dangerous threat. In fact, the storm could weaken considerably over the next 24 hours. The NHC is having some difficulty even placing the exact center of the storm, as can be noted by the satellite images. For now it appears that OPHELIA will take a track similar to Hurricane IRENE and stay to the East of the Bahamas. On the other hand the folks between Myrtle Beach and Frying Pan Shoals might start an assessment of their readiness for inclement weather.

The southern edge of The Subtropical Ridge of the Atlantic usually stays north of the 25th Parallel where atmospheric pressure above 30 inHg will affect the direction of the steering currents and tropical cyclones like OPHELIA. for most of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season there has been a low pressure trough just off of the East Coast of the USA where the last few major hurricanes have traveled through, to disrupt most of the major tourist season for Bermuda. The data from two weather buoys,41044 — South Atlantic NOAA buoy — and especially, 41043 the South Western Atlantic buoy which is about 150 miles north of the Virgin Islands, will show if the southwestern corner of that subtropical ridge is building.

The official hurricane season has two months left to it. Last year the only Hurricane to affect Haiti , TOMAS, came at the beginning of November 2010. Another storm is building off of West Africa — PHILIPPE — south of the Cape Verde Islands. It is expected that PHILIPPE could reach Hurricane Category 3 on the Safir-Simpson scale. The NHC is forcasting that there will be a split in The Subtropical Ridge and PHILIPPE will turn north into the center of the Atlantic within 72 hours.

View the latest observations near Tropical Storm OPHELIA

HaitiAction.net will be tracking the progress of this storm. For the latest official updates, go to the Centre National de Météorologie (CNM) web page Many forecast and tracking resources can be found on the Tropical Cyclone page at HaitiAction.net

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Haiti watching Tropical Storm OPHELIA closely, could threaten by Wednesday

BOOKMARK Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page For Hurricane Season resources and updates

BOOKMARK Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page
For Hurricane Season resources and updates