Haiti's hurricane season heats up with storms ERNESTO and FLORENCE

The most recent surface analysis shows Subtropical Ridge has moved to the north above Haiti from Thursday's report.

The latest ATCF Track shows the official forecast track. For larger view, click the image.

HaitiAction.net - Port au Prince, Haiti — After an unusually quiet start to Haiti's 2012 Hurricane Season August looks to be a lot more threatening to the beleaguered country. The vicissitudes of the Martelley administration has also taken an ominous turn. Dislodging peasants from plots of land that they have been farming for many years — appearing to be acting in concert with the wishes of the Grandons and Neo-Duvalierists has become the priority over preparing the populations for potential threats from deadly flash floods and mudslides. With the impact of the hurricane season, additional civil unrest is also likely with the upcoming election season.

The fast moving tropical storm ERNESTO has advanced into the Caribbean, slowing slightly in forward progress which will help in the organization of the tropical cyclone. It is not expected that the storm will impact Haiti, beyond dumping more rain on the already saturated ground. Even if ERNESTO leaves Haiti unscathed, 3000 miles to the East in "Hurricane Alley" Tropical Storm FLORENCE is developing to threaten Haiti at the end of next week.

As mentioned here on HaitiAction.net on Thursday, the Subtropical Ridge was expected by the official forecasters to help steer ERNESTO across the middle of the Caribbean and away from the southern departments. A trough is developing in the Bahamas and there is still a 30% chance that ERNESTO could suddenly turn northward through Haiti and Cuba. With that chance, and the fragility of the civil defense infrastructure, a Tropical Storm Watch should have been issued by the Government of Haiti by now.

"Because outside preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, watches are issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds."

A Tropical Storm Warning has just been issued by the Government of Jamaica.

All official models forecast ERNESTO to remain on a 275º heading over the next two days and then turn to the right, slightly, and head through the Yucatan Peninsula next week. In the latest advisories and discussion it is noted that ERNESTO is somewhat less organized and weaker. This occasionally happens when a storm begins to change direction. Most models have ERNESTO increasing to hurricane strength within the next three days.

FLORENCE is expected to travel north of Haiti as the Subtropical Ridge weakens further this coming week towards Bermuda.

For the most recent Graphicast from the NHC, go to the Tropical Cyclone Page of HaitiAction.net where there are also many links to relevant forecast services in that region.

View the latest observations near Tropical Storm ERNESTO

HaitiAction.net will be tracking the progress of this storm. For the latest official updates, go to the Centre National de Météorologie (CNM) web page Many forecast and tracking resources can be found on the Tropical Cyclone page at HaitiAction.net

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BOOKMARK Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page
For Hurricane Season resources and updates

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Haiti's hurricane season heats up with storms ERNESTO and FLORENCE

"Because outside preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, watches are issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds."

BOOKMARK Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page For Hurricane Season resources and updates

BOOKMARK Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page
For Hurricane Season resources and updates