Haiti could see Hurricane ERIN threat next week

August 16, 2013
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UPDATE: Haiti could see Hurricane ERIN threat next week

August 15th 2013 article

HaitiAction.net - Port au Prince, Haiti — The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida is closely watching the development of a weather system southeast of the Cape Verde Islands at the beginning of Hurricane Alley in the central Atlantic.

With a wind speed currently at 25 knots Tropical Cyclone 93L Invest is unlikely to reach “Hurricane” (CAT 1 - 64 kt - 74 mph) intensity quickly enough to become the first “Cape Verde Hurricane” of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. However, the tropical cyclone could quickly edge past the intensity the “Tropical Storm” (34 kt - 39mph) classification where it would become the fifth named storm — ERIN — of 2013.

Over the next five days the storm system is expected to wander slowly under a shifting Subtropical ridge that will become less favorable to development. After that period, if the cyclone is still intact, the conditions could cause it to develop quickly. If it moves into the Caribbean it could develop into a significant threat to Haiti.

In any case, it will be preceded by two tropical waves which will saturate the island making dangerous flash floods and mudslides more likely.


August 16 Update

The HaitiAction.net forecast today for ERIN is currently in disagreement with the NHC discussion. While the NHC opinion as of August 16 (2:05 PM Haiti Time) is based upon satellite images that shows that there may be a weakness in the Subtropical Ridge allowing for a more northerly track; where Storm ERIN will be not threat to land.

HaitiAction.net feels that it is too early to take that change in the previous forecast — see map above. We’re leaning toward agreement with the Navy’s GFNI forecast model…

The GFNI is a Navy-initialized version of the GFDL Hurricane Model, interpolated ahead by 6 hours

…and that the westerly steering currents should begin to take over soon, as well. Also, the latest UTC Surface Analysis, from the NHC itself, doesn’t show any weakness in the Subtropical Ridge.

What this all means is that everyone should pay closer attention to the track of ERIN over the next couple of days. If ERIN stays on its current track overnight then the consensus track taken by the NHC will be the stronger opinion. However, if ERIN begins to turn to the left and stays below the 20th Parallel, then the consensus models will begin to shift toward the GFNI model. The next 32 hours will be critical.

If ERIN wanders West-Southwest below the 16th Parallel then it is more likely that most forecasts will have ERIN headed into the Caribbean. The danger is if ERIN moves into the warmer waters just south of that, where conditions will be favorable for cyclone development, and the “tropical depression” will develop into Hurricane ERIN rather quickly. If the forward progress of the storm stays below 15mph for a couple of days then ERIN could become a major hurricane before it crosses the Windward Islands.

This is one time that we’re “hoping” that we’re a bit oversuspicious, and the NHC opinion is correct.

Weather Watches should closely monitor the Surface Analysis to see if there is weakness in western edge of the Mid-level Subtropical Ridge which could also lead to another change in the direction of this storm.


BOOKMARK the Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page for latest updates during this hurricane season.

View the latest observations near ERIN

HaitiAction.net will be tracking the progress of this storm. For the latest official updates, go to the Centre National de Météorologie (CNM) web page Many forecast and tracking resources can be found on the Tropical Cyclone page at HaitiAction.net

BOOKMARK Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page
For Hurricane Season resources and updates

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Contact: info@haitiaction.org

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