Hurricane Bertha could threaten Haiti next week

Haiti Action.net — Port au Prince, Haiti (1330 AST July 3) — Tropical Storm Bertha — moving south of the Cape Verde Islands off the west coast of Africa (13.3N 24.7W) — could follow the trade winds moving along Hurricane Alley (ITCZ) which would take it close to Haiti next week.

However, Bertha is forecast to take a more northerly route into the cooler central Atlantic over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida stated that "…the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/12…" (285°WNW and forward speed of 12mph) over the next three days. If Bertha follows a more southerly track — as predicted by some other NOAA models — Bertha could quickly reach hurricane strength over the weekend.

If Bertha continues along the NHC forecast track then it is likely that the cooler waters will limit the formation of a significantly stronger storm. Over the next couple of days it is expected that the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTS) over the forecast track will favor some strengthening. In either case the progress of this storm will be closely watched and a more decisive forecast track should develop in the next three days.

A weaker tropical wave near Puerto Rico should bring thunderstorms and scattered showers over Haiti by early Sunday.

The suitability of Haiti's government to deal with natural disasters has been called into question since the civil unrest which led to the country's parliament firing of Prime Minister Eduoard Alexis April 12. Currently, President René Preval has nominated his third candidate — Michele Pierre-Louis — for the office of Prime Minister. The government of Haiti should immediately notify civil defense agencies to prepare for a possible Category 3+ hurricane next week. Getting weather alerts to the remote mountainous regions is always difficult.

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