Will Haiti see a hurricane threat soon?

August 18, 2013
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Will Haiti see hurricane threat soon?

The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season heats up.

HaitiAction.net - Port au Prince, Haiti — This last week we were closely watching a potential threat from Tropical Storm ERIN. For now, it seems that it more likely that ERIN will dissipate; as it has become more disorganized today and has been downgraded to a “tropical depression.” On Friday, August 16 HaitiAction.net updated its Wednesday forecast to state that in its opinion the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida was a bit premature in forecasting that ERIN was no threat to land and would spin away to the north in a weakening Subtropical Ridge. Today, it seems that the NHC and the general consensus has modified their forecast again. One concern is that the NHC now has changed the forecast to a West-by-South (260º) heading.

For HaitiAction.net a larger concern is that Hurricane Alley contains not just one area of concern but four…

Looking at today’s UTC Surface Analysis — courtesy of the NHC — All four of those big bold “L” symbols raise the potential of the tropical cyclone threat to Haiti. What weather watchers in Haiti should be paying close attention to is the tropical wave over the Windward Islands and the 1012 Low — in the ITCZ on 50W — showing mild convection. Recently, similar weather systems in those highly favorable — to tropical cyclone formation — conditions have quickly developed into major cyclones overnight. If ERIN — as weak as it looks now — swapped places with that 1012 Low (900 mi SW) we would be forecasting it to develop into a Cat 2 hurricane within 48 hours.

As it is, ERIN “should” dissipate soon as it is headed into much cooler and drier conditions.

Historically, the chance that a tropical cyclone — of any strength — with the current geolocation of ERIN (near 20N and 40W) would come anywhere near Haiti is practically nil. Just the same, if — and that is one big IF — ERIN moves further south it can find some conditions to bring it back into tropical cyclone intensity. For now, we are back in full agreement with the next 48 hours of the NHC forecast. Stay tuned…

For its part, the NOAA (parent organization of the NHC) released the position that they still think that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is still on track to be above-normal. Even though the early season has been generally quiet, they stated:

“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,”

In short, the NOAA is expecting ten or more named storms yet to come, with three to five of those being major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph). Last year was fairly good for Haiti until the late season Hurricane Sandy hit Jamaica. The point to be made here is that even though Jamaica and Cuba took a direct hit, the most devastation and loss of life was seen in Haiti.


BOOKMARK the Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page for latest updates during this hurricane season.

View the latest observations near ERIN

HaitiAction.net will be tracking the progress of this storm. For the latest official updates, go to the Centre National de Météorologie (CNM) web page Many forecast and tracking resources can be found on the Tropical Cyclone page at HaitiAction.net

BOOKMARK Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page
For Hurricane Season resources and updates

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Contact: info@haitiaction.org

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