Tropical Storm Alpha
on HaitiAction.net

Haiti suffers a direct hit by Tropical Storm Alpha

Satellite images show that Alpha took a course to the west of official forecasts and landed squarely on Haiti's populous capital of Port au Prince. With millions living in crowded tin roofed shanties, it is still unclear what the effects of the deluge will be. The island of Hispaniola which includes the Dominican Republic to the east contains many high mountains which dissipated some of the strength of Alpha, but it seems to be increasing in strength as that the storm center moves over open water.

Heavy rains — likely to cause deadly flash floods in some regions — may have dumped over a foot of rain in some of the mountainous areas, by official estimates. Last year Tropical Storm Jeanne killed thousands in the Artibonite Valley, especially near Gonaïves. While sustained winds averaged 35mph but isolated gusts could have been much higher. Sustained winds of 50mph were measured in the Dominican Republic near the border with Haiti last night as Alpha slammed into the south coast.

As of 1:00 PM Haiti Time the presumed center of Alpha is somewhere between Nord Ouest and Cap Haitien. Alpha is moving NW at about 13mph it will still be hours before the impact of this dangerous Tropical storm will be known. It is likely that Alpha will regain Tropical Storm strength as it moves north through the Bahamas and is expected to merge with Hurricane Wilma in a few days.

click button above

Haiti not ready for Tropical Storm Alpha
Deadly floods and mudslides are expected - Saturday, October 22

With more than five weeks left to the 2005 Hurricane season the US puppet regime in Haiti has done little - since it was installed with the help of the US Marines - to improve the civil defense infrastructure in Haiti. The largest storm to directly hit the Dominican Republic and Haiti is expected to batter the island over the next two days. Last year Tropical Storm Jeanne killed up to 6,000 Haitians and was used as a diversion to hide the massacre of hundreds of pro-democracy activists in Port au Prince while the mainstream media was focused on the tragedy in the northern departments.

NOAA forecasters are predicting that Tropical Storm Alpha will dump 4-12 inches of rain directly on the central regions of Haiti. The tropical wave has been quickly consolidating over the last 24 hours into a tropical depression. The probability is good that it will gain strength over the warm eastern Caribbean waters and become another record-setting storm - for this season - and take on the name "Alpha" later today.

The region is already saturated with the heavy rains brought by the outer bands of Hurricane Wilma when it was a tropical storm centered hundreds of miles away, south of Jamaica. While the reports from Wilma's impact on the Yucatan Peninsula are not yet known, 13 of the 14 reported deaths in that storm, so far, were in Haiti.

Echoing the misplaced priorities of the Bush Administration that resulted in the Hurricane Katrina tragedy in New Orleans, USAID priorities in Haiti put the right-wing political agenda over the USAID Hurricane Preparedness program that is still on the back burner one year later. A recent USAID report has shown that it is patting itself on the back for funding anti-Lavalas programs ahead of the sham elections that they hope to inflict on the People of Haiti. One of the "Play for Peace" intervention programs let to a massacre in front of 5,000 soccer fans.

NOAA Forecasters are predicting that the "Alpha" storm system is likely to take a northeasterly turn ahead of Hurricane Wilma and "Tropical Storm Warnings" have been issued by the governments in the Bahamas. There is significant discussion contrary to the computer models of that forecast that point to lower level troughs forming over Haiti and the Gulf that could cause Alpha to actually pause over Haiti - dumping even more rain than expected - before merging with Wilma.

[Midnight update: NOAA is now stating that it's likely that Alpha could merge with Wilma within three days]

The steering currents in the Caribbean could take this system more towards Jamaica, Cuba and Western Haiti later today, even though most forecasters are predicting that the large Mid-Atlantic trough will predominate over the fluctuating airstreams. The tropical depression is moving west-northwest at a comparatively quick 15 mph while "Category 3" Hurricane Wilma is almost stationary over the storm-battered Yucatan region.

Forecaster RAW

Excerpts from the National Hurricane Center advisories:

Tropical Storm Alpha - Sunday Oct 23 2005 - 7:44am Haiti Time
Infrared Satellite image courtesy of NRL Marine Meteorology Division

Tropical Storm Alpha - Oct 22 2005 - 10:15pm Haiti Time
Infrared Satellite image courtesy of NRL Marine Meteorology Division

000
WTNT35 KNHC 231137
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...ALPHA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ALFA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 35 KM...WEST-NORTHWST OF THE CITY OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. A METEOROLOGICAL STATION IN THE CITY OF BARAHONA
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...85 KM/HR AS THE CENTER OF ALPHA MOVED NEARBY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...18.4 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT45 KNHC 230228 TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

HALF OF AN EYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE WAS VISIBLE ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR AS ALPHA WAS MOVING OUT OF RANGE A COUPLE HOURS AGO...WITH SIMILAR ROTATION BRIEFLY OBSERVED WITHIN THE VERY COLD TOPS OF ITS CORE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE NO HIGHER THAN 35 KT AT 00Z...THE RADAR SIGNATURE SUGGESTS THAT ALPHA COULD HAVE A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONGER WINDS AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 45 KT. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE 6 OR SO HOURS BEFORE ALPHA REACHES HISPANIOLA. ALPHA'S SMALL
CIRCULATION SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS OF
HISPANIOLA...AND IS IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE AS
IT CROSSES THE ISLAND. ASSUMING THAT IT SURVIVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC...ALPHA WILL FIND ITSELF IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS
IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE WILMA IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...AND EVEN THOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. ALPHA IS NEARING THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE
WILMA APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE ASSUMPTION
THAT THE SURFACE AND UPPER CIRCULATIONS MAY DECOUPLE DURING THE
INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

ALPHA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING EVENT
OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A STRONG LIKLIHOOD OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 17.7N 70.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 18.9N 71.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 72.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 25/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN CIRCULATION OF WILMA

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTNT35 KNHC 222102 TCPAT5

BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALPHA
ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...ALPHA BECOMES THE TWENTY-SECOND NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON AND BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR THE MOST ACTIVE SEASON ON RECORD...

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IF EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS.

A TROPICAL STROM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF HAITI.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 335 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ALPHA TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...

17.0 N... 68.9 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

HaitiAction.net Links Latest Info on Tropical Cyclones for Caribbean

Caribbean/Gulf Satellite movie
takes a couple minutes to download on DSL
NRL Tropical Cyclone Page
Monterey Marine Meteorology Division
NRL Tropical Support Page
NMOC - Norfolk, VA
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Prediction Center Text only version
Latest ALERT bulletin:
Hurricane update from NWS TPC - National Hurricane Center of Miami FL
NOAA Hurricane Wilma Storm Tracker
Compiles many resources on one window
Storm Track Maps - University of Wisconson Tropical Cyclone Research Team - color enhanced java movie will take a few minutes to load on a good broadband connection
AccuWeather.com - Latest
Atlantic Satellite Overview Best map to see what's coming down Hurricane Alley
Jamaica Information Service - official releases
Jamaica Observer

Latest ALERT bulletin

Latest Satellite update

1 knots = 1.15077945 mph

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
What "Category 1-2-3-4-5" means

Key to offical Tracking Chart symbols
click above link to get original Powerpoint file