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Hurricane Felix
on HaitiAction.net
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Forecast track of Hurricane Felix: Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) map
from NRL Advisory 16 - Sept 4 - click map above for latest version and larger map. Felix went ahore in Northern Nicaragua at Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale |
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| Excerpts from the recent National Hurricane Center advisories: |
000
WTNT31 KNHC 041444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007
...FELIX MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT
LOOMS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
BELIZE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH
OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO PRINZAPOLKA...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF
LIMON TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...INCLUDING ISLAS DE LA
BAHIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES...65 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
OVER HONDURAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH TODAY.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR...WITH 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
HONDURAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PERSONS IN FLOOD-PRONE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...14.3 N...83.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT41 KNHC 041447
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007
FELIX IS NOW INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. THE ESTIMATED LANDFALL INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE IS 140
KT. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED 135 KT
AT AROUND 07Z...AND AFTER THAT TIME THE EYE BECAME MORE DISTINCT
AND THE SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS COOLED...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OF 0.3. CURRENT INTENSITY AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
ARE BASED ON STANDARD INLAND WEAKENING AND FILLING RATES OVER THE 3
HOURS SINCE LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER EXTREMELY
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO THE RATE OF
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE MORE RAPID THAN INDICATED BY
THE STANDARD INLAND DECAY MODEL.
THE MAJOR CONCERN NOW SHIFTS TO THE THREAT OF TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 25
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD
TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.3N 83.9W 105 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 14.3N 85.7W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/1200Z 14.5N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH |
