Tropical Storm ERNESTO will threaten Haiti this Sunday

This surface analysis shows the high pressure ridge as a brown line. It is slowly moving to the East and could allow a more northerly track through Haiti for this storm.

This Plot from NOAA buoy 41101 - East of Martinique shows the approach of Tropical Depression FIVE which is expected to become TS ERNESTO. Click image for latest plot.

HaitiAction.net - Port au Prince, Haiti — The first major storm for Haiti of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season — ERNESTO — is forecast to travel about 150 miles to the south of Haiti this Sunday. The higher elevations of the country could see the largest rainfalls of this year. Haiti has seen a tropical wave almost every week this season which has kept the ground saturated. If rainfall exceeds six inches in the mountainous regions of the south deadly flash floods and mudslides can be expected. Recent civil unrest in the region could have a significant negative impact on emergency services.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida (NHC) reported this morning that the mid-troposphereic high over the Western Atlantic should keep the strong trade-winds blowing through the Caribbean over the next few days. While they expect some strengthening of the depression to become Tropical Storm ERNESTO the combined weather conditions are likely to keep ERNESTO from developing into hurricane strength over the next three days.

The biggest concern for Haiti is if the subtropical ridge over the county will weaken enough to allow the storm to take a more northerly track after passing the Windward Islands. Current models show that there could be a 30% chance that ERNESTO could pass over the southern part of the island just to the west of Jacmel and directly over Miragoane.

For the most recent Graphicast from the NHC, go to the Tropical Cyclone Page of HaitiAction.net where there are also many links to relevant forecast services in that region.

View the latest observations near Tropical Storm ERNESTO

HaitiAction.net will be tracking the progress of this storm. For the latest official updates, go to the Centre National de Météorologie (CNM) web page Many forecast and tracking resources can be found on the Tropical Cyclone page at HaitiAction.net

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BOOKMARK Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page
For Hurricane Season resources and updates

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Tropical Storm ERNESTO will threaten Haiti this Sunday

BOOKMARK Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page For Hurricane Season resources and updates

BOOKMARK Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page
For Hurricane Season resources and updates