Hurricane Danielle not forecast to threaten Haiti, but Hurricane Earl is expected next week August 23, 2010				News HaitiAction.net

Hurricane Danielle 15.4N 41.5W Category 1 at 5PM AST

An ominous weather system off of the west coast of Africa could form into Storm EARL soon

Hurricane Danielle not forecast to threaten Haiti, but Hurricane Earl is expected next week

Haiti Action.net - Port au Prince, Haiti — There is only a 20 percent chance that Hurricane DANIELLE will head more towards Haiti as a "major hurricane" according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida. However, with those odds the "interests" in Haiti will be keeping a close watch on the hurricane this week. The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is still expected to be above average, even though the first couple of months have been relatively quiet with only one other tropical storm — ALEX — reaching hurricane strength in June.

A second weather system is quickly developing into a tropical depression and could develop into a Cape Verde Hurricane — EARL — if the forward progress of the storm slows slightly and stays closer to 10º N than Storm Danielle did over the last week. The vertical shear to the north, that caused DANIELLE to take a more westerly heading over the last 24 hours could have this effect on the new system.

Meanwhile, DANIELLE has been changing direction and confusing the pundits, like some Haitian presidential vagabonds over the last couple of days, but almost all prediction models show that the "vertical shear over the system"will relax a bit and allow the hurricane to reach no more than a Category 2 as it turns more to the north towards Bermuda. If the hurricane wanders again and is still south of the Mid-Atlantic Weather Buoy — 350 miles to the west — tomorrow, then there is likely to be some divergence in the various models and forecasts. If it heads in that region the intensity forecast changes dramatically and Danielle is likely to become a dangerous Category 4 hurricane in the next 72 hours.

RAW

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 240834
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS NOT AS WELL
ORGANIZED AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE AT 77 AND 90 KT...
RESPECTIVELY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
PULSATING FOR REASONS THAT ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS INDICATIVE OF A GENERAL INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT
IS LESS DEFINED TO THE WEST. BASED UPON THE HIGHER SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT.

AN EYE FEATURE THAT FORMED EARLIER IS NO LONGER EVIDENT...BUT A 0434
UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER. THAT
OVERPASS AND OTHER RECENT FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...280/17. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WHEN IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 45-50W. DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED BY 48 HOURS WHEN A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE EVOLUTION OF THESE
FEATURES SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO DECELERATE AND TURN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE REMAINING IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
28-29C. THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES A
35% CHANCE OF AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD HALT THE CURRENT
INTENSIFICATION OR POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
SHEAR...BUT...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES
NOT SHOW RESTRENGTHENING IN 3-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 15.9N 44.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 16.9N 46.6W 95 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 18.6N 48.9W 105 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 20.5N 51.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 52.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 55.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 28.0N 57.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 29/0600Z 31.5N 59.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Hurricane Danielle not forecast to threaten Haiti, but Hurricane Earl is expected next week

BOOKMARK the Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page for latest updates during this hurricane season.

see also

Clinton's 'silence' challenged in Haiti Jul 7

U.N. denials in Haiti Jun 30

Lavalas closed the doors again, elections in Haiti a disaster for Lespwa government Jun 27