Hurricane Tomas could hit Haiti by Monday October 30, 2010				News HaitiAction.net

Most forecast models show TOMAS turning sharply north into Haiti after reaching the end of the mid-level ridge

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The yellow shaded area over The Dominican Republic is the "mid-level ridge." The air current — shown by the directional white lines — is the "southwesterly shear"

Hurricane Tomas could hit Haiti by Monday

Haiti Action.net —Haiti is expecting its first Hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season next week. Currently, Hurricane TOMAS is traveling between the Windward Island countries of Saint Vincent and Saint Lucia. This morning a Hurricane Hunter Aircraft flew through the storm and confirmed that the tropical cyclone had reached Hurricane intensity becoming the twelfth Hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The record-high Hurricane Season in recoded history was in 2005 with 15 hurricanes.

Overnight most prediction models changed dramatically as the effects of a building mid-tropospheric trough on eroding the western edge of the mid-level ridge modified the algorithms. That ridge was expected to keep TOMAS traveling through the center of the Caribbean Sea until the hurricane passed 200 miles to the south.

TOMAS should weaken slightly as it passes through the Windward Islands today and forecasters are expecting further weakening as the storm passes through significant southwesterly shear, also enhanced by the aforementioned mid-level ridge. On the other hand generally favorable conditions in the region that favor TOMAS building into a major — Category 3+ — hurricane within 72 hours.

Sea surface temperatures are, to put it in the most fitting Kreyol term: "chochonet" — about as hot as it can get. The rising hot air off of the ocean is the engine that drives the cyclonic flow of a hurricane. It is likely that the forecast track could change significantly over the next three days as these late season hurricanes have been rather unpredictable.

Interests throughout the country should begin preparing for the arrival of the hurricane, if they haven't already. Even if TOMAS stays on the former forecast track the outer bands of the storm should produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusts throughout the region. The rains will cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides through the south departments. A breaking and troubling development in the forecast models is that once TOMAS reaches the western edge of the mid-level ridge the forward progress will slow significantly, and the hurricane could sit below the southern departments for a couple of days, causing massive rainfall over the region.

View the latest observations near Hurricane TOMAS

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BOOKMARK the Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page for latest updates during this hurricane season. HaitiAction.net will host this page with many Tropical Cyclone resources so you can find the latest information when you are searching for current updates.

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BOOKMARK the Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page for latest updates during this hurricane season.

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Hurricane Tomas could hit Haiti by Monday

BOOKMARK the Haiti Action.net Tropical Cyclone Page for latest updates during this hurricane season.

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Clinton's 'silence' challenged in Haiti Jul 7

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