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Hurricane TOMAS predicted over Haiti by Friday,
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Haiti Action.net - Port au Prince, Haiti — A weakening Tropical Storm TOMAS is currently located 135 miles Northeast of Curaçao and traveling WbS @ 12mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida sees a strong possibility that TOMAS might not survive the westerly vertical shear if it starts a more northerly turn as most prediction models show.
The consensus models appear to be a lagging indicator and haven't caught up with the unpredicted change in the mid-level ridge, reported on here — HaitiAction.net — Saturday morning. ( A good kick to the servers should straighten things out. ) The NHC — last week — was expecting that the mid-level ridge would be eroded by a developing trough over central Cuba. While the trough is still apparent, the mid-level ridge has had more impact on the trough than vice-versa. The strongest part of the rig has widened out north of Haiti and over Cuba, when it was forecast to simply dissipate as it moved Eastward of the "Hispaniola" island.
All of that atmospheric mumbling may be of little interest to many — including the aforementioned algorithm crunching machines — but it may mean that TOMAS could simply stay on a westerly course for a few days longer and miss the beleaguered nation of Haiti entirely. Instead of moving through the strong vertical shear band, to more favorable hurricane development conditions, the storm dissipati shear has said ahead of Tropical Storm TOMAS and could simply "shred" the cyclone into a disorganized mass of angry wet air.
On the other hand, interests in the Windward Islands, especially the Virgin Islands area, are closely monitoring the same models and are providing favorable odds to the HWRF model that was dead on accurate in predicting the U-turn and intensity of Hurricane OMAR in 2008.
It still remains that TOMAS may travel into Haiti over a few days and dump volumes of rainfall over the southern departments causing deadly mudslides and flash floods. The resulting effects on Haiti's internally displaced can't be simply measured, but, we will be here to report it.
View the latest observations near Hurricane TOMAS
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WTNT41 KNHC 020837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
TOMAS HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL
STORM. OVERNIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CIRCULATION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN INCREASING NEAR
THE CENTER. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS SOME BANDING
FEATURES DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ON THE FINAL PASS
OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE OUTBOUND FROM THE CENTER
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...THE MAXIMUM UNFLAGGED SFMR-MEASURED
SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS 44 KT. THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
UPWARD...TO 45 KT...ON THIS ADVISORY. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND ALTHOUGH
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY IMPACT THE SYSTEM...THE
SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME VERY STRONG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
BRINGS TOMAS TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE RELIABLE LGEM GUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE GFDL FORECAST
INTENSITY PREDICTION.
BASED ON THE HURRICANE HUNTER FIXES...THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD...OR ABOUT 270/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE. TOMAS SHOULD BE
STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72-96 HOURS...THE
FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE SHARPLY NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
TROUGH COULD SWING NORTHEASTWARD AND NOT COMPLETELY PICK UP TOMAS.
THEREFORE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
LINGER NEAR NORTHERN HISPANIOLA FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE
WESTERLIES EVENTUALLY CARRY IT FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THAT
POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 13.5N 72.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 13.7N 73.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 14.0N 74.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.4N 75.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 75.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.3N 75.2W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 72.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 70.0W 60 KT...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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